An article, published in the online magazine Eco-Business on June 13,2018, discusses a study by Dr. Michelle Tigchelaar of Washington University, previously published in the Carbon Brief online magazine on 11 June 2018, entitled: “Climate change could heighten risk of global food production ‘shocks’”. The study, carried out by researchers at the University of Washington, led by Dr. Tigchelaar, along with colleagues at Stanford University and the University of Minnesota describe, with mathematical models, the increase of risk of shock in grain production as a result of climate change. Researchers using appropriate mathematical models simulated two different scenarios of global warming, a temperature increase of 2° C and 4° C, in order to understand the effects of the increase on the cultures in the following countries: United States, China, Brazil, Argentina, France and Ukraine, countries that produce more than two-thirds of the world's grain. The simulation allowed to observe a reduction in the total production averaged 8-18% if the planet warms by 2° C and of 19-46% with an increase in global temperature of 4 C°. Heating scenarios considered in the study show very different visions of the future. The 2°C and 4°C warming scenarios used in the study present vastly different visions of the future. A 2°C warming limit is enshrined in the Paris Agreement, but current commitments are insufficient to reach the target. A warming increase of the planet of 4°C would take eight or so decades of emitting carbon at our current rates.
For more information and for those interested in the original study, refer to the following links: